Evaluating Hypothetical Case Scenarios as a Tool to Develop Systems Thinking: A Social Cognitive Theory Analysis

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.v67i3.3329

Keywords:

Decision satisfaction, Evaluation, Kirkpatrick Model, Systems Thinking

Abstract

The food, agriculture, and natural resource (FANR) domain has numerous complex and interconnected challenges often termed “wicked problems,” which need to be addressed using novel techniques. Systems thinking has been identified as an important competency needed to address complex FANR challenges but implementing systems-oriented developmental approaches is often hindered by a lack of effective tools that can be easily integrated into formal or non-formal programs. One promising strategy is the use of Hypothetical Case Scenarios (HCS), which immerse individuals in realistic situations and encourage them to make decisions reflecting situations one might encounter in real life where no clear, correct options are obvious. While the use of HCS shows potential, limited research has explored its application in a FANR context. This study evaluated the use of HCS as a tool to develop systems thinking among individuals. Guided by social cognitive theory, the study incorporated the Kirkpatrick evaluation model to empirically evaluate the HCS approach. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a sample of 337 individuals representing the U.S. public. Findings indicated HCS may be an effective method for developing systems thinking. Integration of HCS into programming when working to educate on complex FANR issues is recommended.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Adusei, F. Y., Scherer, H., & Crowder, L. V. (2025). Systems thinking for in-depth insect pest identification in vegetable farming through collaborative diversity initiatives with farmers. Journal of International Agricultural and Extension Education, 32(1), 11. https://doi.org/10.4148/2831-5960.1459

Alford, J., & Head, B. W. (2017). Wicked and less wicked problems: A typology and a contingency framework. Policy and society, 36(3), 397–413. https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2017.1361634

Alford, K., Stedman, N., Bunch, J. C., Baker, S., & Roberts, G. (2024). A paradigm shifts toward systems thinking in colleges of agriculture. NACTA Journal, 68(1). https://doi.org/10.56103/nactaj.v68i1.190.

Arnold, R. D., & Wade, J. P. (2015). A definition of systems thinking: A systems approach. Procedia Computer Science, 44, 669–678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2015.03.050.

Baker, M. A., Robinson, J. S., & Kolb, D. A. (2012). Aligning Kolb’s experiential learning theory with a comprehensive agricultural education model. Journal of Agricultural Education, 53(4), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2012.04001.

Bandura, A. (1986). Social foundations of thought and action. Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1986(23-28), 2.

Bandura, A. (2001). Social cognitive theory: An agentic perspective. Annual review of psychology, 52(1), 1-26.

Bardoel, E. A., & Haslett, T. (2004). Success to the successful: The use of systems thinking tools in teaching OB. Organization Management Journal, 1(2), 112–124. https://doi.org/10.1057/omj.2004.21

Bechkoff, J. (2019). Gamification using a choose-your-own-adventure type platform to augment learning and facilitate student engagement in marketing education. Journal for advancement of Marketing Education, 27(1).

Bernier, A. (2017). From linear industrial structures to living systems: A design shifts in education for sustainability. Education Sciences, 7(2), 43. https://doi.org/10.3390/educsci7020043

Blackburn, J. J., Robinson, J. S., & Lamm, A. J. (2014). How cognitive style and problem complexity affect preservice agricultural education teachers’ abilities to solve problems in agricultural mechanics. Journal of Agricultural Education, 55(4), 133–147. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2014.04133.

Blair, K. P., Banes, L. C., & Martin, L. (2024). Fostering noticing of classroom discussion features through analysis of contrasting cases. Instructional science, 52(3), 417-452. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11251-024-09661-z

Blatti, J. L., Garcia, J., Cave, D., Monge, F., Cuccinello, A., Portillo, J., Juarez, B., Chan, E., & Schwebel, F. (2019). Systems thinking in science education and outreach toward a sustainable future. Journal of Chemical Education, 96(12), 2852–2862. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1237496

Brennan, A. (2004). Biodiversity and agricultural landscapes: can the wicked policy problems be solved? Pacific Conservation Biology, 10(2), 124-142. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC040124

Byrd, A., Gibson, K., Sanders, C., Corry, R., Lamm, K., & Lamm, A. (2023). An educational exploration of Generation Z’s systems thinking tendencies and green consumer values. Journal of Agricultural Education, 64(4), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.v64i4.64.

Centre for Enhanced Teaching & Learning. (n.d.). Creating effective scenarios, case studies, and role plays: Instructional methods. University of New Brunswick. Retrieved November 4, 2025, from https://www.unb.ca/fredericton/cetl/services/teaching-tips/instructional-methods/creating-effective-scenarios%2C-case-studies-and-role-plays.html

Chen, H. (1990). Theory-driven evaluation. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences. New York, NY: Routledge Academic.

Colvile, R. (2016). The great acceleration: How the world is getting faster, faster. Bloomsbury Publishing USA.

Crawford, P., & Fink, W. (2020). From academia to the workforce: Navigating persistence, ambiguity, change, and conflict in the workplace. Washington, DC: APLU.

de Langhe, B., Puntoni, S., & Larrick, R. P. (2017). Linear thinking in a nonlinear world. Harvard Business Review (Vol. 2017). https://repub.eur.nl/pub/100448.

Demirci, S., Reid, A., Teksöz, G., & Sahin, E. (2025). Systems literacy: towards a conspectus and model for environmental and sustainability education. Environmental Education Research, 31(4), 856-891. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504622.2024.2409959

Dentoni, D., Cucchi, C., Roglic, M., Lubberink, R., Bender-Salazar, R., & Manyise, T. (2023). Systems thinking, mapping and change in food and agriculture. Bio-Based and Applied Economics, 11(4), 277–301. https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-13930

Dentoni, D., Hospes, O., & Ross, R. B. (2012). Managing wicked problems in agribusiness: The role of multi-stakeholder engagements in value creation. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 15(B), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.142273.

Diers, A. R. (2012). Help? Not if you don’t know what to look for: Applying social cognitive theory to program evaluation in competitive forensics. Speaker & Gavel, 49(2), 6.

Dooley, T. P., & Schreckhise, W. D. (2016). Evaluating social cognitive theory in action: An assessment of the youth development program’s impact on secondary student retention in selected Mississippi Delta communities. Youth & Society, 48(3), 383-401. https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118X13493445

Elia, G., & Margherita, A. (2018). Can we solve wicked problems? A conceptual framework and a collective intelligence system to support problem analysis and solution design for complex social issues. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 133, 279-286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.03.010

Fanta, D., Braeutigam, J., & Riess, W. (2020). Fostering systems thinking in student teachers of biology and geography–an intervention study. Journal of Biological Education. https://doi.org/10.1080/00219266.2019.1569083.

Ferreri, S. P., & O’Connor, S. K. (2013). Redesign of a large lecture course into a small-group learning course. American journal of pharmaceutical education, 77(1), 13. https://doi.org/10.5688/ajpe77113

Fischer, G., Shah, M., Tubiello, F. N., & Van Velthuizen, H. (2005). Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: An integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360(1463), 2067–2083. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1744

Forrester, J. W. (1994). System dynamics, systems thinking, and soft OR. System dynamics review, 10(2‐3), 245-256.

Goode, G. S., & MacGillivray, L. (2023). The construction of systems thinking pedagogy during a professional development institute. Journal of Pedagogical Research, 7(4), 275-302. https://doi.org/10.33902/JPR.202318879

Grewatsch, S., Kennedy, S., & Bansal, P. (2023). Tackling wicked problems in strategic management with systems thinking. Strategic Organization, 21(3), 721-732. https://doi.org/10.1177/14761270211038635

Grochowska, R. (2014). Specificity of food security concept as a wicked problem. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology B, 4(10), 823–831. https://doi.org/10.17265/2161-6264/2014.10.010.

Haynes, A., Rychetnik, L., Finegood, D., Irving, M., Freebairn, L., & Hawe, P. (2020). Applying systems thinking to knowledge mobilisation in public health. Health Research Policy and Systems, 18(1), 134. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-020-00600-1

Hiller Connell, K. Y., Remington, S. M., & Armstrong, C. M. (2012). Assessing systems thinking skills in two undergraduate sustainability courses: A comparison of teaching strategies. Journal of Sustainability Education, 3. Retrieved from http://www.jsedimensions.org/wordpress/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/HillerConnellRemingtonArmstrongJSE2012.pdf.

Hmelo-Silver, C. E., Jordan, R., Eberbach, C., & Sinha, S. (2017). Systems learning with a conceptual representation: A quasi-experimental study. Instructional Science, 45(1), 53-72.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11251-016-9392-y

Hur, G., Barry, D., Jagger, C., Alford, K., & Roberts, T. G. (2023). Investigating the impacts of a preservice agriculture teacher recruitment program using Kirkpatrick’s program evaluation model. Journal of Agricultural Education, 64(1), 184-200. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.v64i1.37

Jagustović, R., Zougmoré, R. B., Kessler, A., Ritsema, C. J., Keesstra, S., & Reynolds, M. (2019). Contribution of systems thinking and complex adaptive system attributes to sustainable food production: Example from a climate-smart village. Agricultural Systems, 171, 65–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.12.008

Jaiswal, A., & Karabiyik, T. (2022). Characterizing undergraduate students’ systems-thinking skills through agent-based modeling simulation. Sustainability, 14(19), 12817. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912817.

Kanwar, A., & Sanjeeva, M. (2022). Student satisfaction survey: a key for quality improvement in the higher education institution. Journal of innovation and entrepreneurship, 11(1), 27. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13731-022-00196-6.

Ke, L., Sadler, T. D., Zangori, L., & Friedrichsen, P. J. (2020). Students’ perceptions of socio-scientific issue-based learning and their appropriation of epistemic tools for systems thinking. International Journal of Science Education, 42(8), 1339–1361. https://doi.org/10.1080/09500693.2020.1759843

Keating, C. B., Katina, P. F., Jaradat, R., Bradley, J. M., & Hodge, R. (2021, July). Systems thinking: A critical skill for systems engineers. In INCOSE International Symposium (Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 522–536). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2334-5837.2021.00852.x

Kirkpatrick, D. (1994). Evaluating training programs: The four levels. Berrett-Koehler Publishers

Kirkpatrick, D., & Kirkpatrick, J. (2005). Transferring learning to behavior: Using the four levels to improve performance. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.

Kirkpatrick, D., & Kirkpatrick, J. (2006). Evaluating training programs: The four levels. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.

Kirkpatrick, J. D., & Kirkpatrick, W. K. (2016). Kirkpatrick's four levels of training evaluation. Association for Talent Development.

Klerkx, L., Van Mierlo, B., & Leeuwis, C. (2012). Evolution of systems approaches to agricultural innovation: Concepts, analysis, and interventions. In Farming systems research into the 21st century: The new dynamic (pp. 457–483). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4503-2_20

Lakens, D. (2013). Calculating and reporting effect sizes to facilitate cumulative science: A practical primer for t-tests and ANOVAs. Frontiers in Psychology, 4, 863. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00863

Lamm, A. J., & Lamm, K. W. (2019). Using non-probability sampling methods in agricultural and extension education research. Journal of International Agricultural and Extension Education, 26(1), 52–59. https://doi.org/10.5191/iaee.2019.26105

Lamm, A. J., Lamm, K. W., Rumble, J. N., Ellis, J. D., & Tidwell, A. (2020). Testing a model to explain how the public makes decisions about genetic modification. Journal of International Agricultural and Extension Education, 27(1), 47–63. https://doi.org/10.5191/jiaee.2020.27104

Lamm, K. W., Carter, H. S., & Lamm, A. J. (2016). Evaluating extension-based leadership development programs in the southern United States. Journal of Agricultural Education, 57(1), 121–136. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2016.01121

Lamm, K. W., Carter, H. S., Stedman, N. L., & Lamm, A. J. (2014). Teaching transformational leadership to undergraduate agricultural leadership students: Using the personality trait of agreeableness to improve understanding. Journal of Agricultural Education, 55(4), 24-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2014.04024

Lamm, K. W., Lamm, A. J., & Edgar, D. W. (2020). Scale development and validation: methodology and recommendations. Journal of International Agricultural and Extension Education, 27(2), 24-35. https://doi.org/10.5191/jiaee.2020.27224

Lamm, K. W., & Priest, K. L. (2019). Evaluating the role of leader-member exchange in leadership development program satisfaction. Journal of Agricultural Education, 60(3), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2019.03001

Leischow, S. J., & Milstein, B. (2006). Systems thinking and modeling for public health practice. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3), 403–405. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2005.082842.

Lopez, G., Mazzuchi, T. A., & Sarkani, S. (2014). The Role of System-Thinking Development and Experiential Learning on Enterprise Transformation. Journal of Information & Knowledge Management, 13(03), 1450021. https://doi.org/10.1142/S021964921450021X.

McClure, M. M., Fuhrman, N. E., & Morgan, A. C. (2012). Program evaluation competencies of extension professionals: Implications for continuing professional development. Journal of Agricultural Education, 53(4), 85–97. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2012.04085

McKim, A., & McKendree, R. (2020). Metacognition, systems thinking, and problem-solving ability in school-based agriculture, food, and natural resources education. Advancements in Agricultural Development, 1(1), 38–47. https://doi.org/10.37433/aad.v1i1.21

McKim, A. J., & Velez, J. J. (2016). An evaluation of the self-efficacy theory in agricultural education. Journal of Agricultural Education, 57(1), 73–90. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2016.01073

Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in systems: A primer. Chelsea Green Publishing.

Meinke, H. (2019). The role of modeling and systems thinking in contemporary agriculture. In Sustainable food supply chains (pp. 39–47). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813411-5.00003-X

Mueller, A. L., Knobloch, N. A., & Orkthryn, S. (2015). Exploring the effects of active learning on high school students’ outcomes and teachers’ perceptions of biotechnology and genetics instruction. Journal of Agricultural Education, 56(2), 138–152. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2015.02138.

National Research Council, Division on Earth, Life Studies, Board on Life Sciences, Committee on a Leadership Summit to Effect Change in Teaching, & Learning. (2009). Transforming agricultural education for a changing world. National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/12602.

Nguyen, K. A., Borrego, M., Finelli, C. J., DeMonbrun, M., Crockett, C., Tharayil, S., Shekhar, P., Waters, C., & Rosenberg, R. (2021). Instructor strategies to aid implementation of active learning: a systematic literature review. International Journal of STEM Education, 8(1), 9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40594-021-00270-7

Nunnally, J. C. (1978). An overview of psychological measurement. Clinical diagnosis of mental disorders: A handbook, 97-146.

Nyström, M. E., Tolf, S., Sparring, V., & Strehlenert, H. (2023). Systems thinking in practice when implementing a national policy program for the improvement of women's healthcare. Frontiers in Public Health, 11, 957653. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.957653

Pawson, R., & Tilley, N. (1997). Realistic evaluation. London: Sage.

Peters, B. G. (2017). What is so wicked about wicked problems? A conceptual analysis and a research program. Policy and Society, 36(3), 385-396. https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2017.1361633

Peters, B. G., & Pierre, J. (2014). Food policy as a wicked problem: contending with multiple demands and actors. World Food Policy, 1(1), 4-11. https://doi.org/10.18278/wfp.1.1.1

Powell, A., Lamm, K. W., Borron, A., & Lamm, A. J. (2023). Critical issues facing Georgia residents: An application of the Delphi technique and community capitals framework. Journal of Agricultural Education, 64(4), 76-95. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2023.04076

Preskill, H., & Russ-Eft, D. F. (2015). Building evaluation capacity: Activities for teaching and training. Sage Publications.

Roberts, T. G. (2006). A philosophical examination of experiential learning theory for agricultural educators. Journal of Agricultural Education, 47(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2006.01017.

Rogers, P. J., Petrosino, A., Huebner, T. A., & Hacsi, T. A. (2000). Program theory evaluation: Practice, promise, and problems. New directions for evaluation, 2000(87), 5-13.

Román‐Sánchez, D., De‐La‐Fuente‐Rodríguez, J. M., Paramio, A., Paramio‐Cuevas, J. C., Lepiani‐Díaz, I., & López‐Millan, M. R. (2023). Evaluating satisfaction with teaching innovation, its relationship to academic performance and the application of a video‐based micro learning. Nursing Open, 10(9), 6067-6077. https://doi.org/10.1002/nop2.1828

Rosenkränzer, F., Hörsch, C., Schuler, S., & Riess, W. (2017). Student teachers’ pedagogical content knowledge for teaching systems thinking: Effects of different interventions. International Journal of Science Education, 39(14), 1932-1951. https://doi.org/10.1080/09500693.2017.1359511

Rossi, P. H., Lipsey, M. W., & Freeman, H. E. (2003). Evaluation: A systematic approach. Sage publications.

Ruth, T. K., Rumble, J. N., Lamm, A. J., & Ellis, J. D. (2018). A Model for Understanding Decision-Making Related to Agriculture and Natural Resource Science and Technology. Journal of Agricultural Education, 59(4), 224-237. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2018.04224

Rutherford, A. (2019). Learn to think in systems: Use systems archetypes to understand, manage, and fix complex problems and make smarter decisions. Publish Drive.

Sainfort, F., & Booske, B. C. (2000). Measuring post-decision satisfaction. Medical Decision Making, 20(1), 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X0002000107

Sanders, C. E., Byrd, A. R., Gibson, K. E., Golson, A., Lamm, K. W., & Lamm, A. J. (2023). Teaching systems-thinking concepts with hypothetical case scenarios: An exploration in food-systems science education. Foods, 12(14), 2663. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12142663

Sanders, C. E., Fortner, A. R., Gibson, K. E., Lamm, K. W., & Lamm, A. J. (2022). Teaching systems thinking concepts with hypothetical case scenarios: An exploration in agricultural education. Journal of Agricultural Education, 63(4), 135-150. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.2022.04135

Scott, D., Cernasev, A., & Kiles, T. M. (2021). Reimagining pharmacy education through the lens of a choose your own adventure activity—a qualitative evaluation. Pharmacy, 9(3), 151. https://doi.org/10.3390/pharmacy9030151

Scriven, M. (1991). Self-evaluation. Evaluation thesaurus.

Senge, P. M. (1990). The fifth discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization. New York: Doubleday.

Senge, P. M. (2006). The fifth discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization. Broadway Business.

Sharpe, D. (2015). Your chi-square test is statistically significant: now what? Practical assessment, research & evaluation, 20(8), n8.

Stalter, A. M., Phillips, J. M., Ruggiero, J. S., Scardaville, D. L., Merriam, D., Dolansky, M. A., Goldschmidt, K. A., Wiggs, C. M., & Winegardner, S. (2017). A concept analysis of systems thinking. In Nursing forum (Vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 323-330). https://doi.org/10.1111/nuf.12196

Stroh, D. P. (2015). Systems thinking for social change: A practical guide to solving complex problems, avoiding unintended consequences, and achieving lasting results. Chelsea Green Publishing.

Suvedi, M., & Stoep, G. V. (2016). Improving the monitoring and evaluation of agricultural extension programs. USAID. MEAS discussion paper, 5.

Thunström, L., Mannberg, A., Gilbert, B., & Loewenstein, G. (2025). (Dis) satisfaction with risk preferences. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1-36https://doi.org/10.1007/s11166-025-09449-7

Vincent, A., & Ross, D. (2001). Personalize training: determine learning styles, personality types and multiple intelligences online. The Learning Organization, 8(1), 36-43. https://doi.org/10.1108/09696470110366525.

Yaremko, S. A., Nikolina, I. I., Kuzmina, E. M., Pugach, S. S., Wójcik, W., Denissova, N., & Kozbakova, A. (2020). Model of integral assessment of innovation implementation in higher educational establishments. International Journal of Electronics and Telecommunications, 66. https://doi.org/10.24425/ijet.2020.131894

Yoon, S. A., Anderson, E., Koehler-Yom, J., Evans, C., Park, M., Sheldon, J., Schoenfeld, I., Wendel, D., Scheintaub, H., & Klopfer, E. (2017). Teaching about complex systems is no simple matter: Building effective professional development for computer-supported complex systems instruction. Instructional Science, 45(1), 99-121. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11251-016-9388-7

York, S., Lavi, R., Dori, Y. J., & Orgill, M. (2019). Applications of systems thinking in STEM education. Journal of Chemical Education, 96(12), 2742-2751. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jchemed.9b00261.

Zhai, S., Hash, J., Ward, T. M., Yuwen, W., & Sonney, J. (2023). Analysis, evaluation, and reformulation of social cognitive theory: Toward parent-child shared management in sleep health. Journal of pediatric nursing, 73, e65-e74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pedn.2023.07.011

Downloads

Published

08/14/2026

How to Cite

Yazdanpanah, M., Lamm, K. W., Lamm, A. J., Lu, P., Woosnam, K., Sanders, C., … Guthrie, K. (2026). Evaluating Hypothetical Case Scenarios as a Tool to Develop Systems Thinking: A Social Cognitive Theory Analysis. Journal of Agricultural Education, 67(3), Article 14. https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.v67i3.3329

Issue

Section

Journal of Agricultural Education

Most read articles by the same author(s)

<< < 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 > >>