Modeling National Agriculture Teacher Supply and Demand: A Longitudinal Analysis, 2016-2025

Amy R. Smith; Daniel D. Foster; Rebecca G. Lawver; Michael Spiess; Margaret Ashley Rogers

doi:10.5032/jae.v67i4.3461

Authors

Amy R. Smith University of Minnesota https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9124-8890
Daniel D. Foster The Pennsylvania State University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2175-0623
Rebecca G. Lawver Utah State University
Michael Spiess California State University, Chico https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9353-3309
Margaret Ashley Rogers National Association of Agricultural Educators https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0943-7677

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5032/jae.v67i4.3461

Keywords:

Agriculture Teacher Supply and Demand, School-based Agricultural Education, Teacher Workforce, Teacher Attrition, Alternative Certification, Human Capital Theory

Abstract

The stability of school-based agricultural education (SBAE) depends on a sufficient and well-prepared supply of agricultural educators. This study used 10 years of national workforce data (2016–2025) to examine trends in agriculture teacher supply and demand and estimate the gap between workforce need and supply of newly prepared teachers. Supply data were reported annually by agriculture teacher preparation institutions, and demand data were reported by state agricultural education leaders. Missing values were addressed through interpolation to support longitudinal comparisons. Results indicated the number of program completers declined from a peak of 904 in 2019 to 747 in 2025, although the agricultural education workforce expanded from approximately 12,400 to more than 15,700 teachers. Three findings emerged as particularly important. First, attrition was the dominant source of workforce demand, accounting for most annual staffing needs throughout the study period. Second, only 73% to 80% of program completers entered agricultural education classrooms, reducing the effective supply available. Third, local school districts increasingly relied on alternatively licensed and non-licensed personnel to meet staffing needs, suggesting alternative certification has become a structural component of the agricultural education workforce rather than a supplemental pathway. The estimated annual shortfall grew from 268 positions in 2016 to a peak of 788 positions in 2024 before declining to 542 in 2025. Findings suggest addressing workforce shortages will require coordinated efforts focused on recruitment as well as retention, yield, and the support of alternatively prepared educators.

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